Running Backs to Fade in PPR Leagues?

For fantasy GMs, draft season is gearing up. Preparing for what is waiting for us in our virtual war-rooms is a key part of the process, and the first thing to know is the language our leagues will speak to us in.

The first step is to know if you’re going to battle your foes in Standard or PPR (Point-Per-Reception) scoring systems. The difference between those leagues comes down to a simple matter of awarding one extra point to players that catch a pass. Standard scoring was a staple in the early days of fantasy football but PPR has become the most played system lately.

With both Standard and PPR-scoring systems in mind, it’s time to discover which players are surefire bets in one system but potential duds in the other. Today, I’m highlighting four running backs who are primed to become studs in Standard leagues but not so much when used in PPR-format ones.

Sony Michel, New England Patriots

The difference between Michel’s game and New England’s “secondary” running back James White’s is staggering. While Michel is all about getting the rock in hand and running with it, White’s game is all about running routes to receive the ball through the air to catch it and rack up yards. They’re the perfect tandem for a single backfield given their complementary profiles, but White loses most of his appeal in Standard leagues due to receptions not being extra-rewarded.

That makes Michel the go-to guy in this format if you’re thinking about getting shares of the Patriots backfield in 2020. Michel profiles as a 750-yard rusher next season but he shouldn’t be expected to approach even 150 yards through receptions. In fact, he’s expected to log around 25 targets next year (using PFF projections), so even catching all of those his numbers in PPR-leagues wouldn’t be boosted that much — less than two points per game.

Keep in mind that Michel will also get most of the goal-line carries over White for the Patriots and that most of his points will come via rushing, and you have a surefire Standard-league player available in the middle part of drafts that wouldn’t be that valuable in PPR formats.

Derrick Henry, Tennesse Titans

Including Henry here might be seen as a stretch if looking at the meaning of “worth fading” completely out of context, but it makes sense all things considered. Just take a look at last season’s stats: Henry led the league in rushing yards by almost 200 (he finished with 1,540 to Ezekiel Elliott’s 1,357) but he finished 40th among running backs in receiving yards (206) and 51st in receptions (17). You know where I’m going.

Henry is a monster no matter the format, precisely because he excels at running with the ball while being virtually null at catching it. Actually, it is not that Henry is bad at pass-catching duties, it is that he doesn’t even get the chance to perform them. That makes him a good-but-not-great asset in PPR leagues when compared to the likes of Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler–the former a do-it-all beast and the latter a super-prolific pass-catching back that makes up for his rushing game with excellent receiving numbers.

My advice: draft Henry no matter the league you are part of, its format, the number of teams taking part on it, and whatever other things that can be considered. Henry is is a great fantasy player in any context, yes, but always remember that he won’t be used in the passing game and that alone will take some points from his overall tally in PPR leagues while going unnoticed in Standard ones. Bank on Standard Henry, but fade (if only a bit) PPR Henry.

Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers

I don’t think there is a lot to gain from getting shares of the 49ers backfield this season. I’d rather avoid the Mostert-Coleman pairing altogether, but if you find yourself thinking (or almost forced given the circumstances of your draft) to pick Mostert, only do so early in Standard leagues. Mostert is great rusher and he projects to surpass the 1,000-yard mark in 2020 for the first time in his career. That alone makes him a 100-plus point player from the get-go, and paired with some touchdowns and receiving yardage he shouldn’t have much trouble reaching 175 to 200 points no matter the league format.

I don’t think anybody would argue that outcome is a bad one, either in PPR on Standard leagues. The problem for those banking on Mostert in PPR leagues is that his overall tally won’t be much better than the one he’d get in Standard leagues, and that is something you want to avoid. Per PFF, Mostert projects to finish 2020 with only 25 receptions for 180 yards. That means he will only get an extra 25 points in PPR leagues over his fantasy scores in Standard ones. There are 37 other running backs projected to have more than 25 receptions in 2020 and reach at least 100 PPR points, and 18 projected for 25-plus receptions and 200-plus PPR points.

When looking at Standard scoring projections, though, Mostert’s paltry pass-catching numbers don’t kill his upside that much. He’s one of only eight RBs projected for at least 200 fantasy points, ranks as the potential 10th-best player overall (all positions considered), and he’s in that position even with his ridiculously low projection of 25 receptions. That should make clear how valuable he’s on Standard leagues but how much ground he’d lose if used in PPR-format leagues.

Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams

The Rams backfield has gone from Todd Gurley II (RB14 in PPR leagues in 2019) to Cam Akers (rookie) and Malcolm Brown/Darrell Henderson (PPR RB67/RB98 last season). While we don’t have data from Cam Akers in the NFL, we can use projections to try and peek into the Rams’ future in terms of running backs, and things don’t look too good for Akers when it comes to the pass-catching side of the game. Neither Brown or Henderson reached even 10 targets last season, sure, but with Gurley out of town, it looks like it will be Henderson the one getting most of Gurley’s 49-target leftovers.

That doesn’t mean Akers can’t catch the ball, but rather that he’s much more valuable on the ground than on pass-catching duties. Akers projects as a 200-plus rushing attempts tailback compared to Henderson’s 110. Not only that, but Akers is also expected to rack up more than 800 yards on the ground and top 130 fantasy points in Standard leagues. In PPR-format leagues, though, the difference between him and Henderson is almost nonexistent: Akers projects to 151 PPR-points and Henderson to 142 as the latter is expected to almost triple his number of receptions from 2020.

If you’re part of a Standard league, you definitely want to keep an eye on Akers. He’s one of 29 rushers expected to break the 130-point mark and is projected to finish the season as the 65th-best player, making him a great value to draft in the latter part of drafts if still available. He’s also the running back expected to reach the biggest fantasy-points tally while catching 17 or fewer passes (Jordan Howard is next with 103 points). On the other hand, in PPR leagues he only ranks as the potential 80th-best player overall and RB33.

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